Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 15.523941 17.700267 20.032631 22.713530 25.705151 28.935954 32.684161
2025-08-24 12.191046 15.139321 18.534741 22.715467 27.704417 33.445869 40.530965
2025-08-31 10.347189 13.583648 17.487946 22.509868 28.759332 36.238751 45.821613
2025-09-07 9.071228 12.517723 16.850983 22.643517 30.120491 39.376678 51.622772
2025-09-14 8.296707 11.948680 16.704822 23.272457 32.012813 43.139989 58.254520
2025-09-21 7.349366 11.029628 15.987215 23.047647 32.718293 45.356242 62.948374
2025-09-28 6.306641 9.857818 14.802779 22.060143 32.280843 45.976980 65.491936
2025-10-05 5.923310 9.582488 14.821840 22.706526 34.069400 49.613648 72.188403
2025-10-12 5.533807 9.253633 14.723969 23.155112 35.573026 52.893418 78.500498
2025-10-19 5.032917 8.703287 14.248345 23.001640 36.176850 54.910234 83.097883
2025-10-26 4.572532 8.170802 13.751333 22.766738 36.622254 56.688089 87.389896
2025-11-02 4.226262 7.789210 13.452604 22.801383 37.449635 59.025990 92.550056
2025-11-09 3.936206 7.482607 13.259584 23.001778 38.559782 61.859831 98.608934
2025-11-16 3.622974 7.107648 12.926915 22.954011 39.275400 64.126858 103.910956
2025-11-23 3.317203 6.714764 12.529750 22.763851 39.735838 65.997736 108.651013
2025-11-30 3.097402 6.455993 12.337251 22.892695 40.700670 68.665951 114.688029
2025-12-07 2.980063 6.376222 12.445744 23.529918 42.515387 72.719183 123.002058
2025-12-14 2.738613 6.036749 12.068766 23.302150 42.872932 74.462463 127.732223
2025-12-21 2.410483 5.495092 11.284831 22.305294 41.871029 73.962773 128.850887
2025-12-28 2.335244 5.454976 11.421383 22.957887 43.718178 78.160220 137.663018
2026-01-04 2.238697 5.361735 11.449783 23.410868 45.231327 81.851543 145.760049
2026-01-11 2.075529 5.112379 11.160411 23.255893 45.658309 83.736518 150.933291
2026-01-18 1.916635 4.856701 10.839338 23.018711 45.919543 85.339580 155.674796